I finally had some time to take a close look at the new Five Year Forecast published by Treasurer Brian Wilson in December, subsequent to the passage of the 6.9 operating levy in November. Here are a few observations:
- Total revenue is projected to grow from $142.7 million in FY08 (actual) to a projected $159.7 million in FY13, an increase of $17 million over the five years. However, it's not a steady growth, but rather $8 million in FY09, $8.7 million in FY10, and essentially flat for FY11-FY13.
There are two causes for this. One is the elimination of commercial Personal Property Tax and the phase-out of the guarantee created to soften the blow for school districts. In FY06, the PPT+"property tax allocation" (which includes the Guarantee) was $26 million. In FY13, Mr. Wilson projects this total falling to $17 million. That's $9 million we'll need to make up locally.
The other revenue factor is that the property tax revenue will step up from $71.7 million in FY08 to $91.2 million in FY10 (as a result of the 6.9 mill levy), then stay essentially flat in FY11-FY13. In other words, he doesn't think there will be much in the way of new residential or commercial construction in the next few years, and I think that's reasonable.
- Total expenses are projected to increase from $146.4 million in FY08 to $188.5 million in FY13, an increase of $42.1 million, in ever-increasing steps of over $8 million/yr, of which 95% is attributable to the increases in compensation and benefits for the employees of the district.
Take note that the FY13 revenue is projected to be $159.7 million and the expenses to be $188.5, resulting in a cash consumption rate of $28.7 million in that year alone. Clearly without a significant adjustment to expenses, or some revenue windfall, more levies will be needed.
- We started out FY09 (this school year) with $13.3 million of cash, and are forecasted to consume cash every year of the forecast, starting with $1.5 million in FY09 and reaching $28.7 million in FY13. At that rate, we'll empty the bank account in FY11.
So clearly we need we need more revenue growth and less expense growth. If we assume there is no other revenue source available to us than local property taxes, then how much is needed, and how often will new levies be required?
Well, if we use Mr. Wilson's forecasts exactly, the math is pretty easy. According the Ohio Department of Education, one mill of property taxes generates about $2.5 million in revenue in our school district. To cover all of our projected expenses through FY13, we would need a levy of about 6.4 mills in 2010, and another of the same size in 2012.
In other words, we would need to tax the people of our district about the same increment we did this year (about $200 for each $100,000 in market value) in 2010 and 2012. If the total expenses – of which 95% of the change is due to compensation and benefits – continues growing at the same rate, we can expect to need additional levies every two years at ever increasing millage rates.
But remember, it is the official policy of this school board to maintain a cash operating reserve (call it a rainy day fund) of at least 10% of projected annual expenses. If FY13 expenses are projected to be $188.5 million, then we should have $18.9 million in cash reserves saved away by then. To reach that goal, the 2010 and 2012 levies would need to be nearly 9 mills. Once the reserve is restored, subsequent levies would be reduced back to that required to funding spending increases.
Clearly the conversation must center on two things: a) if we can expect significant additional funding from the State of Ohio; and, b) the rate of increase of personnel costs.
The Governor will soon announce his plans for education funding. We have to recognize that the State has its own funding nightmare in front of it, to the point that the Governor is seeking concessions from union employees of the state that include a 5% pay cut and the elimination of step increases. I don't see how we can expect the Governor to ride to our rescue in this environment. We may be lucky to be handed only slight decreases in our state funding.
In other words, we should expect that any increases in spending will need to be funded with local tax levies.
As always, this brings us to the subject of personnel costs. Our unions have just signed agreements that grant 7% annual increases to the majority of employees – upwards of 70%of them according to a statement made by Mr. Wilson in one of the pre-levy public meetings. Yes, they did concede to pay a small fraction of their health insurance premiums, and I appreciate that.
But even with that concession, I don't see how the next union contracts can contain similar numbers. The step percentage needs to come down from 4.15%, the annual increase percentage lowered from 3%, and the contribution to health insurance premiums increased. The degree to which each is changed is something which is going to be difficult to negotiate, and I think the work needs to start now.
It could be that the union members might want to adjust which years get a step increase, or perhaps to make the step increases vary depending on the year. I think a good place to start would be to set a goal for annual growth in compensation and benefits costs, as Rick has been suggesting for months, and let the union members get creative as to how to allocate the funds.
And I hope that the younger members of the unions, particularly the HEA, make their voices heard. When there's only so much money to go around, and a minority gets to negotiate for all, that minority will be tempted to tweak the deal to benefit themselves at the expense of those who feel weak and vulnerable. Remember young teachers, for the more senior teachers the difference between the best case and worst case scenarios is largely about compensation, while for you, it is about whether or not you have a job. If you don't want the senior members of the union gambling with your job, you need to ensure that the union represents all of you.
I don't think we have anything resembling a clear picture of the future fiscal health of our school district. It's clear that sacrifices will need to be made, and we'll have to make some hard decisions about what things are "must-haves" and what are "nice-to-haves." We may have a stretch here when we can't afford much of the latter. So the same admonition must go out to the people of our community: this is no time to be apathetic about the governance of our school district or local municipalities.
And I don't totally disagree with the position taken by Jim Fedako over at Anti-Positivist, who asserts that this system we have of allowing a simple majority of voters to cram tax increases down everyone's throat is a bad thing – he would say immoral. As with so much in our government, we've taken a good idea and allowed it to be morphed by special interests into a grotesque version of the original vision (which was simply that all American kids should have access to some level of education, regardless of their financial capacity). I'm not sure our country can afford what public education has become. This may be the opportunity to recalibrate our national priorities.
We've got the gas pedal to the floor, but are looking in the rear-view mirror.
That reminds me of the joke about two brothers, Bubba and Jim Bob, who are being interviewed to drive a semi cross-country as a team. The interviewer says "Bubba, you're driving a truck with a heavy load, and Jim Bob is sleeping in the back. You crest a big hill and see that a train is on the tracks across the road at the bottom of the hill. You hit the brakes and discover that they've failed. What do you do?" Bubba says, "I'm wakin' up Jim Bob." "Why for goodness sake?" says the interviewer. Leroy answers: "'Cause Jim Bob ain't never seen a crash like's about to happen!"
(apologies to those who've been wanting this dialog raised to a higher plane)